SPM Investment Calculator

Size what your portfolio investment is putting at risk.

Every figure here is either a number you enter or a published third-party rate. There is no proprietary model in the middle. The calculator sizes exposure using your own investment figure. It does not promise a return.

Your numbers

Adjust the inputs. The result updates live.

Annual delivery / transformation investment in scope The total spend you want to put under the lens.

Share of that investment at risk: 100% Narrow it to just the at-risk portion, or leave at 100%.

Loss rate, conservative floor: 20%

Loss rate, upper bound: 42%

Upper bound default is the McKinsey figure for value lost in the later phases of transformation. The floor is yours to set to a number you would defend in the room.

Recoverable share: 30% The fraction of the exposure that better visibility can realistically recover. Keep it conservative.

What your leadership cannot see

Exposed investment

$12.0M

investment × share at risk

Value at risk, per year

$2.4M – $5.0M

exposed investment × loss rate (20% – 42%)

Recoverable with better visibility

$720k – $1.5M

value at risk × recoverable share (30%)

This sizes exposure using your numbers and a published rate. It does not promise a return. The engagement is what goes after the recoverable value.

Sources

McKinsey, How to implement transformations for long-term impact, May 2023. Around 42% of expected value is lost in the later phases of transformation. Read
BCG, Why Companies Get Agile Right and Wrong, 2024. 47% of companies run on the illusion of agility. Read
BCG Platinion, Why 70% of Transformations Miss the Mark and How to Fix Them, 2024. Read